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| Monday, June 18, 2012
As expected, Germany stepped up a gear against Netherlands after slogging to a win over Portugal in their opening group game and, as many predicted, they top Group B. But even six points from two games doesn't guarantee progress to the quarter-finals for Joachim Low's team, and they wrap up group proceedings against a Denmark side that has already sprung a surprise with a 1-0 win against the Dutch (although were indebted to a medley of misses).
If the Germans play as they did for most of their game against Bert van Marwijk's under-achievers, they should have few worries about securing the point they need. After the plod against Portugal, the win over Netherlands indicated that the fluent attacking football that has become a German hallmark was on its way back. Mezut Ozil, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thomas Muller prompted and pressed as the Dutch - admittedly sometimes underwhelming in the challenge - floundered.
And at the cutting edge of all that was the country's unexpected man of the moment. There were media grumblings when Low selected Mario Gomez for the Portugal game - grumblings that were silenced by a majestic headed winner and buried altogether by two more fine finishes against Netherlands. It has been a golden week for a striker who has sometimes struggled to bring his club confidence to the international stage.
The Germans have apparently assured their Dutch counterparts that they will be going all out to win (Van Marwijk and the gang have to hope for that, and to beat Portugal by two or more goals). German fans already revelling in their victory over the Oranje may well be enjoying, even more, the fact that their bitterest rivals desperately want - and need - them to win.
But Morten Olsen's Denmark have every incentive to stop them: win and they have a great chance of going through. They can count themselves a little unfortunate not to have four points - Nicklas Bendtner and his controversial pants looked to have rescued a draw from two down against Portugal, for whom the perennially posturing Ronaldo suffered an in no way amusing nightmare in front of goal, only for Silvestre Varela to thrash in a late winner.
The Bendtner brace, though, threatened to gloss over the fact that Denmark just don't look very comfortable or happy in defence. The clean sheet against Netherlands was deceptive: few opponents will manufacture that many chances and fail to take any of them.
With the likes of Ozil and Schweinsteiger pulling the strings, the Danes are unlikely to keep Germany out - and that means much will come down to whether Bendtner, never a man for underselling himself, Michael Krohn-Dehli and Christian Eriksen can capitalise on the chances they get to open up the German defence. If they can, there might be a very interesting finale in the Group of Death - the Hammer Horror film that never was - to look forward to.
Denmark player to watch: Nicklas Bendtner. The two-goal star of what ultimately turned out to be a disappointing show last time out, the striker who has so often bigged himself up has the opportunity to make a decisive impact when it really matters. It's unclear what his underwear plans are.
Germany player to watch: Mario Gomez. Well, who else? His star has been in the ascendancy ever since, with substitution imminent, he won the game against Portugal. His first goal against Netherlands was taken with a level of aplomb that told of the confidence injection that brought.
Key battle: Daniel Agger v Mario Gomez. Nobody needs reminding of what a good centre-back Agger is, and how he deals with the tournament's joint top scorer will have a significant bearing on Denmark's chances of keeping Germany at bay.
Stat: Denmark haven't lost in their last three games against the Germans, all of which were friendlies.
Trivia: The last three times Germany won their first two matches at a European Championship, they went on to win the trophy.
Odds: Denmark (6.00), Germany (1.72) and the draw (3.40) are on offer with bet365, while man of the moment Gomez is 5.50 to be first goalscorer.
Prediction: Germany were much more assured in their second match than their first, and rarely looked flustered even after Netherlands had pulled a goal back. With their passing clicking into gear, they should get more than the point they need here.
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| Sunday, June 17, 2012
Preview
World Cup finalists, top scorers in qualifying and one of the favourites to win Euro 2012, the Dutch now stand on the brink of a humiliating early exit from the European Championship. After two defeats on the bounce, the Oranje must beat Portugal by two clear goals and hope Germany defeat Denmark in order to escape from Group B.
It's a tall order. No team has ever reached the knockout phase at the Euros after losing their first two matches. Throw in the fact that it took Netherlands 46 shots to notch a solitary goal, never mind two, and Bert van Marwijk's side look destined to board an early flight back to Amsterdam.
There's dissent in the ranks too. Striker Klaas Jan Huntelaar, who topped the Euro 2012 goalscoring charts in qualifying with 12 strikes, and playmaker Rafael van der Vaart have both voiced their frustration at starting games on the bench.
The latter's exclusion has caused particular consternation in the Dutch media, which has repeatedly questioned the coach's decision to stick with Robin van Persie's wayward shooting during the tournament. The Huntelaar vs. Van Persie debate dominated the build up to Euro 2012 and Van Marwijk appears to have backed the wrong striker, even in light of his club form.
On the plus side, the Dutch have a fully fit squad to choose from and circumstances mean that both front men could be handed a starting role. That would result in a rarely seen change of formation for Van Marwijk, with either one of his two beloved defensive midfielders - Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong - or Barcelona winger Ibrahim Afellay making way.
Portugal, who need a win to be absolutely certain of going through, go into the game having recovered from an opening defeat to Germany with a 3-2 win over group dark-horses Denmark and did so with star-turn Cristiano Ronaldo yet to find top form.
Pepe, substitute Silvestre Varela and Helder Postiga got the goals against the Danes and the latter is likely to keep his place in attack ahead of Hugo Almeida and Nelson Oliveira. Portugal boss Paulo Bento has a fully-fit squad to choose from and should stick with the same XI that featured in Lviv.
Portugal player to watch: Joao Moutinho. The FC Porto star plays on the left of a midfield three for Portugal but still manages to orchestrate the game from his outside position. He tops the passing stats in terms of attempts and completion for Paulo Bento's side but more importantly he is incisive with his distribution. He is the man that creates goalscoring chances for his team-mates and he will be the key to unlocking the Dutch defence.
Netherlands player to watch: Robin van Persie He may have had more than a quarter of Netherlands' shots, but he has also scored their only goal and is unlikely to be dropped against Portugal. His form was such for Arsenal this season that he was selected ahead of the Oranje's top scorer, Huntelaar, and he needs to rediscover his old finesse in front of goal if his side are to bag the two goals (at least) they need to stand a chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Key Battle: Fabio Coentrao v Arjen Robben. Real Madrid defender Coentrao has made his name as a marauding full-back but it is his defensive qualities that will be under scrutiny when he faces up to Bayern Munich's Dutch winger. Coentrao, 24, has made just a single tackle in the tournament so far and he'll certainly have to improve that statistic against Robben, who has point to prove after being hauled off in Netherlands' 3-1 defeat to Germany.
Trivia: The last time Netherlands were knocked out at the group phase of the European Championship (1980) was two years after they finished runners-up at the World Cup (1978) - just as they did in 2010.
Stats: The Dutch have failed to score in six of their ten meetings with Portugal.
Odds: Portugal (2.80), the draw (3.50) and Netherlands (2.50) are on offer with bet365, with a 2-2 draw available at 12.00.
Prediction: Netherlands have only won one of their previous ten internationals against Portugal and it seems unlikely they will do so at the Metalist Stadium. A draw is more likely.
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