Uniqueposts: live euro cup 2012 Croatia v Spain Live

Italy's story of Euro 2012 so far has been a tale of two draws - one heralded, one lamented. After earning plaudits for their enterprising 1-1 stalemate with world champions Spain in their opening game, the same team and the same tactics were far less celebrated when they were held to the same scoreline by Croatia.

Cesare Prandelli's 3-5-2 formation operated fluently for a game-and-a-half until Slaven Bilic's tactical tinkering at the interval halted its momentum, blunting Italy's wing backs and forcing them deeper into their own half. Despite some efficient forward movement, they have registered only two goals - the last an expertly taken free-kick from the evergreen Andrea Pirlo. His midfield prompting has been one of the shining lights of Prandelli's operation so far.

Neither Antonio Cassano nor Mario Balotelli has found the net, despite a steady trickle of chances falling their way. But there is hope for a better goals return against Ireland, who have provided the leakiest defence at the tournament. Italy must win their final game to stand any chance of making the last eight. If they do gain three points, and there is a decisive result in Spain's clash with Croatia, they'll qualify in second. If they win and the other game ends in a draw it gets complicated. If Spain v Croatia ends 0-0, Italy go through with Spain. If it finishes 1-1 it will come down to goal difference. If Spain and Croatia serve up a 2-2 draw, they will both go through and Italy will head home. Conspiracy theories have swiftly been denounced by both camps.

That Ireland have become the Group C whipping boys will serve as a major embarrassment to coach Giovanni Trapattoni, whose parsimonious approach during qualifying had seen them develop into a solid defensive unit. They have conceded seven in their opening two games and have one single mission in Poznan - to restore pride. As ever, if major tournaments were decided on fan following, Ireland would have multiple honours; it is imperative their ageing team provides a scrap of dignity for their faithful supporters before they return to the Emerald Isle.

Trapattoni has named the same team that lined up against Croatia, sticking by the likes of Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, Richard Dunne and Shay Given despite the criticism that has come their way - most of it from former stalwart Roy Keane. Given that it has taken Ireland ten years to qualify for a major tournament, this clash has more than a hint of swansong about it. Despite fans clamouring for James McClean's inclusion, the veteran coach has opted to retain Aiden McGeady. Should Ireland slump again, without the Sunderland winger seeing a significant slice of action, Trapattoni will feel their wrath. Ireland need to offer something to avoid their Euro 2012 campaign going down as a bone fide disaster, albeit in what was a vicious group.

Italy player to watch: Antonio Cassano. It has been a case of nearly but not quite for the mercurial striker at Euro 2012 - his controversial aside about homosexuals making more headlines than his performances on the pitch. But there is a sense Cassano is nearing top form, as his first half showing against Croatia suggested. The Milan forward can expect more room in which to operate in against Ireland and must utilise it properly if he is to finally make the big impact many expected from him before the tournament began.

Ireland player to watch: Robbie Keane Ireland's captain has had to feed on scraps in the tournament so far, with Ireland's creative players reduced to mere bystanders during the defeat to Spain. Unlike some of his colleagues, he has rejected talk of international retirement, so a demonstration that he is still able to cut it on such a glittering stage would be timely before Ireland's World Cup qualification campaign begins.

Key Battle: Andrea Pirlo v Keith Andrews. With respect, a mismatch in terms of ability, but Andrews - and midfield colleague Glenn Whelan - must get close to Pirlo to stunt his expansive range of passing. Croatia afforded the 33-year-old time and space in the first half of their match and paid the price, but profited in the second when they made sure he was shackled. Andrews must do the same if Ireland are to prosper.

Trivia: Ireland have only beaten Italy twice in the 11 games they've played against each other but 18 years ago to the day they will meet in Poznan came one of the Republic's most famous wins, a 1-0 success over Italy at World Cup '94 in the United States, courtesy of a Ray Houghton goal.

Stats: Italy have now gone six matches without a win at major final tournaments - the worst run in their history.

Odds: Italy (1.30), the draw (5.50) and Ireland (11.00) are on offer with bet365, with a 3-3 draw available at 81.00.

Prediction: Ireland have never lost all their games at a major tournament and their chastened pack will perform much better than in their opening two games but needs must for Italy, who should have enough to claim victory.
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Spain and Croatia head into this match knowing that a 2-2 draw will be enough to secure both teams a place in the quarter-finals and, not surprisingly, it has been suggested in some quarters that's exactly what they'll play out at the PGE Arena in Gdansk.

Level on four points, top spot in the group and a supposedly easier opponent in the quarter-finals awaits the victor. But defeat carries a hefty penalty and could leave either side heading home, provided Italy, who trail the duo by two points, beat already eliminated Ireland.

However, both camps have furiously denied that there'll be even a slight hint of collusion.

Asked if Spain would consider playing for the draw, midfielder Xavi Hernandez said: "Absolutely not. We only know how to play attacking football so a draw would not suit us. Our aim is always to go out for victory and against Croatia it will be no exception. We will play to get three points from the first minute until the last."

Spain will be at full strength for the pivotal match with midfielder Sergio Busquets recovered from a minor foot injury. Manager Vicente del Bosque is likely stick with striker Fernando Torres in attack after the No. 9 showed signs of rediscovering his long lost form with two goals in the confidence-boosting 4-0 win against Ireland.

With La Roja looking close to their best, Croatia coach Slaven Bilic has admitted his team will need the "game of their lives" against the defending European champions. It's expected that Bilic will drop striker Nikica Jelavic and play Tottenham playmaker Luka Modric in support of front man Mario Mandzukic in order to pack out the midfield.

Croatia player to watch: Mario Mandzukic. All eyes will be on the Wolfsburg forward after a brace against Ireland and a strike versus Italy made him joint-top scorer of Euro 2012 with three goals. But goals aren't all that Mandzukic brings to the team. The 26-year-old's link-up play provides a constant threat and if he is to feature as a lone striker this will be an asset he will have to exploit to the maximum. Mandzukic can also play as winger and his ability to prod and probe all along the Spanish back-four should allow him to fully exploit any weakness in what is supposed to be their Achilles heel.

Spain player to watch. David Silva. The Manchester City star was part of the trio of midfielders who made up the front line of Spain's controversial 4-6-0 formation against Italy and laid on the goal for Cesc Fabregas. However, he was much more at home when a recognised No. 9 was restored to the side, he played a part in both of Torres' goals and popped up to score on himself. With Torres due to lead the line again, Silva should be at his best.

Key Battle: Luka Modric v Sergio Busquets

Modric has adapted to a deeper role as playmaker for club and country but against Spain he will be thrust further forward, providing the link between midfield and Croatia's sole striker. The tricky forward is certainly good enough to do the job but Spain know that if they keep him quiet they will nullify Croatia's attack. That will be the job of Busquets, Spain's destroyer, such as it is.

Stat: Mario Mandzukic has had only four shots at Euro 2012 but has scored with three of them.

Trivia: Over their last 24 fixtures at Euros and World Cup, the only side able to score more than a single goal against Spain were France, during their 3-1 at the 2006 World Cup.

Odds: Croatia (8.00), Spain (1.72) and the draw (2.87) are on offer with bet365 while a 2-2 draw is 7.00.

Prediction: Spain are clear favourites with the bookies but Croatia are capable of getting the draw they need to go through.

Watch Live Croatia v Spain

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